Economic confidence hits a new low
Written by Len on June 18th, 2011Economic confidence continues its gradual decline in Nova Scotia
The Thinkwell Research Economic Confidence Index (ECI) hit a new low in May, slipping to -32. This is slightly lower than the previous low of -30 set in March.
Following the economic downturn in the fall of 2008, economic confidence in the province was stable and positive throughout most of 2009. However, after months passed with little or no sign of a significant rebound in growth, the ECI dove back down beginning in early 2010. This trend has continued into 2011 (see below).
Note: inflection points indicate when data was collected during the time period shown on the x-axis.
Negative perceptions of Nova Scotia’s economic future were principally responsible for the strong decline in the index in 2010, but the gradual decline thereafter has been driven largely by perceptions of the current state of the economy.
Also, during the past six months, consumers have maintained their view that Nova Scotia is either still in a recession (December 2010, 42%; May 2011, 37%) or recovering from one (46%; 47%). Very few in this period say they believe the recession is fully over (7%; 10%).
Job Security
We also asked employed Nova Scotians to tell us whether their employer is adding or reducing staff. The measure is designed to give us a broad sense of trends in the employment picture in the province.
Since March, there has been a 10-percentage point drop in the number who say that there are no changes planned in the size of the workforce of their company (March 2011: 57%; May 2011: 47%), and increases in the proportion who say that their employer is either hiring new people (March: 24%; May: 27%) or laying people off (March: 17%; May: 22%).
These results are from an omnibus survey conducted by telephone with a random, representative sample of 405 adult (18+) Nova Scotians between May 4 and 11, 2011. A sample of this size is expected to yield a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
